- Kahneman on the dangers of over-confidence. We all know less than we think we know, and can predict the future with far less certainty than we think we can.
- On a related note, read Koukoulas on Access Economics’ forecast of a budget deficit next year. The ability for firms like Access to generate headlines with mundane and obvious observations about the economy never ceases to astound.
- An interesting speech by David Gruen on the Treasury’s “wellbeing framework” that ends up being about much more than that – including normative and positive approaches to inequality, and the role of equity and efficiency considerations in policy advice.
- Brad DeLong lays out a simple, but quite profound, summary of recent US economic history, with a focus on monetary policy. It includes a “mea maxima culpa” for ignoring the lessons of Japan’s long stagnation.
- Mike Konczal comprehensively refutes the idea that Fannie and Freddie were responsible for the subprime crisis (and thus the broader financial crisis and Great Recession that were to follow).
- A new study by Katharine Bradbury of the Boston Fed finds that social mobility in the US has fallen as inequality has risen. A cautionary tale.